Authoritarians weigh in on Trump assassination attempt: After an attempted assassin’s bullet winged former US President and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday, Russia extended sympathies, blaming an “atmosphere” around the candidate which it insinuated was created by the administration of US President Joe Biden. In remarks Sunday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that Biden was unlikely to be behind the attempt, but highlighted the administration’s supposed attempts to “remove” Trump from the political arena through the courts. Other Russian officials followed by suggesting the US divert funds for support of Ukraine to domestic security. Chinese President Xi Jinping extended his sympathies, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted “thoughts and prayers” for Trump – days after visiting the candidate in Mar-a-Lago following his recent “peace mission” that included stops in Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing. 

Venezuela heads toward elections, with democracy – and US sanctions policy – in the balance: On 28 July,Venezuelans will head to the polls to decide between the incumbent – authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro – and nine other candidates, including retired diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, who currently enjoys a significant lead over Maduro in the polls. The election is not only a rare example of an entrenched authoritarian ruler being forced to face a serious democratic challenge, but also a crucial test case for US sanctions policy. In 2023, as the Washington Post reported this week, the Biden administration cut a deal with Maduro: it eased Trump-era sanctions in return for Maduro’s promise to allow a free and fair election this year. However, after leading opposition candidate María Corina Machado was barred from running in January 2024 and rallied the opposition behind González Urrutia, the US reinstated sanctions in April. González Urrutia’s double-digit lead has spurred hopes for a real democratic opening in Venezuela, which has suffered crippling displacement, economic crisis, repression, and rampant criminal violence under Maduro’s Putin-friendly autocratic regime. However, the lead-up to the elections has featured government intimidation and voter suppression efforts. Whether Maduro will allow fair elections – or respect their outcome if he loses – is an open question. The US, for its part, continues to keep up sanctions pressure, most recently with the 11 July sanctioning of Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which allegedly has a close relationship with the Maduro government. It has been accused of the murder of a Venezuelan opposition leader in Chile in April on orders from Caracas. If, against the apparent odds, there is an opposition victory and peaceful transition of power, it will be a victory not only for democracy, but also a validation of US sanctions and a much-needed foreign policy win for Biden and his beleaguered reelection campaign.

China sanctions US drone companies: On 12 July, China announced sanctions on six US defense companies for involvement in a US arms sale to Taiwan, including drone manufacturers Anduril Industries and Maritime Tactical Systems, as well as on five senior executives, three from Anduril and two from drone company AeroVironment, Inc. Their assets in China will be frozen. The Chinese sanctions announcement follows a similar package imposed on Lockheed Martin several weeks ago. These designations illustrate Chinese attempts to respond in kind to  American willingness to deploy the sanctions tool against Chinese entities and officials, especially those providing material support to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The situation also underlines the geopolitical interconnectedness of the China-Taiwan and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. The latter has demonstrated the importance of drones as an essential weapon of modern warfare. As a recent report from the Center for a New American Security showed, the ability to rapidly, sustainably, and adaptably field huge numbers of cheap, attritable drones is likely to be a critical advantage in any potential conflict over the Taiwan Strait, just as it has been in Ukraine. However, the cost-per-unit of the drones included in the recent US sale to Taiwan, which provides around 1,000 “kamikaze” drones to the island for a reported US$360 million price tag, has prompted criticism from some in the Taiwanese policy community. Certainly, it will do little to allay fears that the US and Taiwan are at a marked disadvantage in this area.        

State imposes visa restrictions on Chinese officials: On the other side of the coin, the US State Department announced on the same day that it would be issuing visa restrictions on Chinese officials for “involvement in repression of marginalized religious and ethnic communities.” In addition to Hong Kong and Tibet, the announcement highlights Chinese Communist Party oppression of the Uyghur population of Xinjiang province. Chinese drone manufacturer DJI – which controls over 70% of the global drone market, and whose Mavic drones are widely used for reconnaissance by both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict – has been implicated in human rights violations in Xinjiang. The  potential that Uyghur forced labor has been used in electronic component supply chains – including in Russia-bound exports – may be a potential case for designations under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. 

Amidst tensions in Middle East, West hits both sides with sanctions: On 12 July, the State Department and OFAC announced sanctions on an Iranian entity, the Hakiman Shargh Research Company, for its alleged involvement in Iran’s chemical weapons program. The announcement followed State and OFAC announcements on 11 July of designations of a number of Israeli individuals and entities for extremist violence in the occupied West Bank. The EU followed suit with the announcement on 15 July of designations of several of the same individuals and entities and adding violent activist group Tsav 9, which has reportedly been involved in efforts to block aid to Gaza and was previously sanctioned by the US. 

Russia releases video of FAB-3000 glide bomb drop, likely enabled by US components: On 14 July, the Russian Ministry of Defense released video of a strike with a three-ton FAB-3000 glide bomb on Ukrainian positions, following a similar claimed strike with the massive explosive on 20 June. Close watchers of military developments in the Ukraine conflict noted that the new video demonstrates the ability of the Su-34 to deploy the munition, a Soviet – era design designed for use by larger bombers and modernized with a Unified Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK) kit that extends its range to dozens of kilometers with pop-out wings and a guidance module to improve accuracy. As TDP has previously reported (based on an investigation by Ukrainian analytic outfit TrapAggressor), the UMPK kits include imported components – including from US technology manufacturers – which make their way into Russia through third-country supplier networks.