DOES THE US NEED TO MAKE AN EXAMPLE OF AUSTRIA?

 In Austria, a party winning 28.9% of the vote has caused a political earthquake from Vienna to Brussels. And the tremors extend as far as Moscow, perhaps even Beijing. In September 26th’s legislative elections, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), under the leadership of Herbert Kickl, beat out the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) by a margin of 2.6% to become the largest party in parliament. The chancellor of the outgoing government, Karl Nehammer, signaled the ÖVP’s unwillingness to form a coalition, saying bluntly: “It is impossible to form a government with someone who adores conspiracy theories.” As of the second week of October, talks were at an impasse. Amid this crisis, US equities are at stake: to put it bluntly, a government including the FPÖ – an avowedly anti-Semitic and pro-Moscow party that scapegoats Muslim and other immigrants – would be a threat to US values and national security priorities. Luckily, the US has options that fall short of outright interference. It should make clear to both leaders and the population that if the FPÖ leads a coalition government, we will consider a raft of measures to protect the security of the US and our allies and uphold our values. This could include a downgrade of diplomatic and trade relations with Austria, a ban preventing FPÖ’s leaders and their families from traveling to the US and visa requirements for Austrian citizens. 

That the FPÖ exists in a modern European country, especially Austria, is extraordinary. Formed in 1956 as a successor to a post-war party formed by and for former Nazis, it was made possible because, to quote one 2022 academic paper, “the [current] Second Republic of Austria was founded on the assertion that Austria was the first victim of Nazi Germany”. This myth has been discredited, with Austria’s foreign ministry stating prominently today: “High-ranking representatives of the Republic of Austria have acknowledged that Austrians were not just victims of National-Socialism but that many Austrians both supported the [National Socialist] regime and committed (horrible) atrocities.” (Parentheses in the original) Yet this narrative, which initially allowed for the reintegration of former Nazis into society, has latterly provided oxygen for the far right, which promotes the “Fortress Austria” vision of a country cleansed of immigrants, a world view built on victimhood. 

Notably, the FPÖ has been a junior member of multiple coalitions over the past quarter century. Party leader Jörg Haider, who reportedly said veterans of the Waffen SS deserved “honor and recognition”, thrust the party into international prominence and electoral success. But even he knew he was too toxic and stepped aside as a condition for the party’s inclusion in an ÖVP-led coalition government in 2000. At the time, Israel and several European countries downgraded relations and Belgium’s then-foreign minister said: “Europe can very well do without Austria. We don’t need it.” At one point, it appeared the European Parliament was contemplating the suspension of Austria’s membership. Yet a policy of containment prevailed, with Brussels tolerating governments that included the FPÖ as a minority party. This set a precedent for Hungary, with the EU today tolerating (aside from funding squabbles) an overtly authoritarian government in a member state.

Turning right

The FPÖ’s win follows other far-right victories in the EU in 2024. In Germany, the anti-immigration party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) gained its biggest victory yet when it came first in state elections in Thuringia. The head of the local party chapter, Björn Höcke, has faced two separate trials this year for knowingly using Nazi slogans at rallies. In France, the Rassemblement National (National Rally) alliance, under Marie LePen, was the biggest winner in June’s EU parliamentary elections. In July’s snap legislative elections –  called by the president in an enormous gamble to harvest the backlash against LePen and her followers – France’s centrist bloc and left-wing used tactical voting to keep the far-right grouping third in terms of seats, even as it gained by far the most votes (37%) overall. And in Austria’s neighbor Slovakia, as we wrote about in our last newsletter, Prime Minister Robert Fico’s ruling coalition is led by his notionally left-wing Smer (Direction) party. But, above all, it is populist  and includes the ultranationalist Slovak National Party. This led the EU’s umbrella center-left grouping in the EU Parliament to suspend Smer last October, along with coalition member Hlas (Voice), the party of the recently elected president.

That Fico has much more in common with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and the FPÖ’s Herbert Kickl than some French socialists reflects common strands in European populist politics, including Euroscepticism, hostility to immigration, the embrace of conservative attitudes toward the family (and hostility to LGBTQ+ communities), support for Vladimir Putin’s Russia (and often China) and a pastiche of historical grievances. The latter has fed the major divide among European far-right parties in parliament, with France’s Rassemblement National officially breaking with AfD earlier this year over comments that the SS were “not necessarily criminals”. The presence of an alleged Chinese spy and corruption among AfD party leaders has also damaged the brand. Orbán and Kickl have sought to paper over national divides, leading the creation of the new, far right Patriots.eu fraction in the European parliament to cement the right-wing gains across the bloc in June’s elections. Notably, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has been a significant outlier in the populist camp for its staunch support of Ukraine and NATO. 

For European democracy, the electoral success of parties like the FPÖ poses grave if not existential challenges. France has been mired in a political crisis since July. Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government just survived a no-confidence vote with the support of, er, LePen’s alliance. To mangle a Hungarian idiom, Macron may have “fallen off the other side of the horse” by backing the left tactically to exclude the far right from government. Speaking of Hungary, some, like the indefatigable Orbán, are driving a pan-European, even global, far right project with US and UK conservatives. These coalesce over shared hostility towards progressive policies but can run aground quickly over issues like China (Hungary enthusiastically welcomes the Chinese police, while this is a no-go for virtually all American conservatives).

Breaking the impasse 

As of time of writing, an FPÖ-led coalition appeared unlikely but not impossible. Notably, the party’s last experience of governing was not auspicious and revealed its willingness to support Moscow in exchange for financial support. The FPÖ was a junior partner under ÖVP Chancellor Sebastian Kurz from December 2017 to June 2019. Kickl’s predecessor as party leader, Heinz-Christian Strache, served as vice chancellor until May 2019, when German media published excerpts of an extraordinary, seven-hour video of Strache and another senior FPÖ figure in Ibiza offering a buffet of business deals to a woman posing as a Russian oligarch’s niece. In exchange, the woman promised she would acquire a large stake in one of Austria’s largest newspapers to provide positive coverage of the FPÖ. Strache – who previously reached out to Israel to mend fences (Haidar moved on found an even more extreme party before dying in a car crash in 2008) but who also called Austrian journalists “whores” and told the Russian impersonator of his ambition to reshape Austria in the image of Orbán’s Hungary – resigned. 

Meanwhile Austria remains a critical actor, if not an enthusiastic participant, in the US-led effort to sanction Russia for its aggression against Ukraine since 2014. As we have written here repeatedly, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) has remained by far Russia’s largest European bank since the invasion. In May 2024, media reported that the US Treasury had warned it that the US could cut off RBI’s access to the American financial system, with the US and the European Central Bank piling on public pressure to sell the subsidiary. In early September, a Russian court froze the shares in RBI’s Russian subsidiary amid a dispute with companies related to sanctioned oligarch Oleg Deripaska and reports that “two major buyers” had emerged to acquire the business. 

Does the US have a role to play in Austria’s domestic political calculation? As evidenced in Austria after 2000, in Hungary under Orbán and latterly, in Slovakia, EU institutions appear unable to deal with populists. For America, Hungary and Slovakia represent national security concerns. Both are NATO members and have, rhetorically at least, allied themselves with Russia. Orbán went even further, inviting the Chinese security forces to set up shop in the country. Importantly, Austria is militarily neutral. But its economic relations have been another story. Two years into the war, the country was still 98% dependent on Russian gas. At the same time, the strains of the war have shown, with flooring giant Kronospan, a major supplier of Ikea and a large and one-time enthusiastic investor in both Belarus and Russia reportedly exiting since 2023. The FPÖ’s foreign policy includes a dose of resentment against this pressure to abandon a market that has made Austria billions of dollars. Whoever forms the next government, the US should not release the pressure on RBI until it has finally divested, and we should make clear that we really would contemplate sanctions against an EU bank. Should the FPÖ enact Fortress Austria through mass deportations, the US should require Austrian citizens to obtain visas, ban prominent politicians and their families and offer safe harbor to the victims of this policy. The truth is that Europeans do not believe the US would take robust steps against an EU state and its largest bank. Many Austrian voters believe they can elect far-right extremists despite the historical obscenity of doing so without consequences. After so many missed opportunities with Hungary, the US has the chance today with Austria to show we won’t look the other way when our security and values are endangered, allowing our Austrian friends to make an informed political choice.